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shysweetthing · 8 years ago

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Victor Nikiforov is a financial genius: you asked for it, now get punched in the face with the new 22-point version

What do I mean by financial genius? I mean three things:

A. Victor Nikiforov is substantially better at making money than most people, and that includes the extent to which he is able to capitalize on his own success.

B. Victor Nikiforov is better at not spending money than he usually gets credit for in fandom.

C. Victor Nikiforov is able to understand disparate financial situations and help others navigate them to their success.

One brief note: I’m sure someone is going to say “I don’t see it like that!” which will be entirely not surprising, since this is a headcanon and not a canon. You don’t have to headcanon Victor as a financial genius! But this is why I do!

All of the 7,000+ words and 22 points in support of that follow after the jump. I apologize for any formatting issues but I’m doing everything on my iPad and Tumblr is apparently not well suited for outline architecture that occasionally goes four levels deep? Argh.

(Edited to add: I know this is long, but point 16.B. is my favorite and please read it because I love Victor so much.)

1. Let's start with this post from Johnny Weir on the economics of skating. I mentioned this in my original post, so I'm not going to go into too much detail here. Suffice to say that skating is an expensive sport, probably one of the most expensive sports.

You need gear. If you're skating competitively, you need good skates--and if you can't afford good skates, you're never going to skate competitively, and you're never going to be found. You need lessons, and coaching, and rink time, and choreography, and costumes. Add in--for higher level athletes--trainers and gym time and ballet lessons. Skating is a sport and an art and it charges double time for all of these things.

2. Skating is a much harder sport to monetize than most, and it pays dividends for a very short space of time. It is instructive to thumb through something like the Forbes list of world's highest paid athletes to see where people get their money from. The list is here: https://www.forbes.com/athletes/#dc1a9bd55ae5

2.A. Team sports like football, baseball, basketball, and soccer (showing my American ways, sorry) have regular games which produce steady income. They have teams, which have fanbases that can be built up over the course of decades, and which result naturally from geography. Merchandizing for those teams is purchased to show not just a like for an individual player but an allegiance to the team and a membership in a club. These sports are much, much easier for athletes (and others) to make money off of for that reason.

2.B. You don't start hitting athletes from non-team sports until #14 Sebastian Vettel (auto racing), #16 Novak Djokovic (tennis), #17 Tiger Woods (golf). (I cannot express my disgust that Serena Williams is only #51 on that list, given that she is one of the greatest athletes of our time, but this is an entirely separate discussion, goodbye.) All of those sports allow for much greater longevity in the sport than figure skating, which means more time to build a fan base, which translates into more income. Those three sports make up most of the non-team well-paid athlete lists, and they fall into two categories.

2.B.i. Golf & Tennis: These are sports that have, um, how to say it, a particular cachet as country-club sports. They are things that even people who are extremely bad at them will do, or at least purchase the accoutrements of doing it, so that they will Fit In to the Right Place. That means that popular athletes in these fields can be used to market heavily to wealthy country-club goers and those who wish to appear to be the same. (This is part of the reason why Serena Williams is not much, much higher on the list. You're smart. You can figure it out.)

2.B.ii. Automobile racing: I am not best suited to explain the appeal of automobile racing, but suffice to say the demographics and nature of appeal is quite different from figure skating, and I can’t imagine that anyone is going to fight me on this point.

2.B.iii. Figure skating is clearly more popular in the YOIverse than in our universe, although more on this in point #6 below. This means that Victor almost assuredly has a larger fanbase than, say, Yuzuru Hanyu would today.

2.B.iv. That being said, there are reasons why even a more popular figure skating sport would yield substantially less money on a yearly basis for its top billers than some of the items on that list.

2.B.iv.a Figure skating events are fewer and further apart than most other events, and while this is somewhat a function of popularity, it is also largely a function of the fact that when people see events, they want to see skaters do jumps, and jumps are really, really hard on the body. Skating more would lead to more injury.

2.B.iv.b. There isn't a "team culture" around skating--it's about an individual. It takes time to build up a fanbase, and for the vast majority of skaters, by the time your fanbase is well-known outside of the avid followers of the sport, you are on the verge of retirement.

2.B.iv.c. There is very little to sell that is unique to your sport. For some sports, you can sell jerseys, or even general gear as in "Serena Williams uses this tennis skirt!" Because skating is almost uniquely part performance, part sport, this is much more difficult to achieve. Skaters perform in individual costumes that cost thousands of dollars. This is impractical merchandise to sell.

This does not mean that there's no way to make money in skating! There is! I will go into it later! Just that the monetizing of skating is a much, much harder thing to accomplish.

3. I know what many of you are saying. "But shysweetthing, Russia is different than the US." This is true. For instance, while we here in the US leave skating to (basically) the super-wealthy, with zero support available except where you can cobble it together from gofundmes and the occasional helpful check from a kind individual, Russia (and Japan!) both have actual state support.

3.A. This is true today. Historically, though, this has not always been the case, and it's relevant to the sport. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, and for a period of maybe 10-12 years, there was very little state support for skating. Russia basically lost a generation of figure skaters because of this. Brief discussion here: https://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/05/sports/olympics/in-russia-skating-booms-again.html?_r=0 It wasn't until around 2001 that skating resources began to come back, and not until maybe 7 or 8 years later that they started scouting rinks early to identify child prodigies.

3.B. Canonically, Victor has been skating since he was a child (source: http://yoimeta.tumblr.com/post/154990523062/lookiamnotcreative-has-anyone-done-this-yet), which means he started skating in maybe 1996 or 1997. He won the Junior World championship at 15 (same source), which is around the time of the resurgence in Russian state support for skating.

That leaves a lot of uncovered skating expenses in young Victor's pre-championship life. By the time Yuri Plisetsky came around, there were skating scouts again looking for great athletes to discover. Victor did not have that benefit. While Victor probably received a modest stipend/has skating expenses covered after he became a champion, he was very likely on his own in terms of support in the crucially formative years on his way to becoming one. I'll come back to this.

3.C. Russia doesn't provide as much support as Victor's apparent wealth indicates. I cannot for the life of me find this interview although I've searched for it extensively, but apparently I'm missing the keywords. In one of Kubo's interviews, she mentioned that she happened to be on the same flight as Evgenia Medvedeva after she'd won gold at worlds, and lo and behold, Medvedeva trooped back into coach.

3.D. As an additional datapoint, Japan also provides some degree of support for its skaters, and yet see this (https://toraonice.tumblr.com/post/162732055900/sinkingorswimming-victors-flowercrown-okay-so#notes) about how Shouma Uno says he isn't making a profit on skating right now. Like, damn. Again, skating is more popular in the YoIverse, but no matter how you slice it, Shouma Uno is one of the top 5 male skaters in the world (at least) (don't argue) and he's not making a profit.

3.E. Given the history at play here, Victor Nikiforov should actually be given substantially more in-universe credit for Russian stipends and expenses (as Plushenko should in our universe). Victor would have been the face of Russian skating while there was a resurgence of the sport.

He's the one who would argue about what skaters need and yes, you should cover this fee, and yes, we need to have a resistance trainer at the rink who understands pliometrics. Victor Nikiforov wasn't given these things simply for being a figure skater, the way that Yuri Plisetsky was. Victor Nikiforov almost certainly would have been involved in the creation of the current system of support, thank you, and would not have been a simply passive recipient.

3.F. (As a total aside from this, this is a great discussion of institutional support for figure skating in the US and Canada, which I deposit here for all your fic needs: http://www.twofortheice.com/price-skating-glory-part-2-institutional-funding/ Please note that all this "Yuuri gets a scholarship in the US" thing is...so highly unlikely, simply because the scholarship funds in the US are distributed by the US Skating Federation and...are thus unlikely to be given to a foreigner.)

4. Let's talk about Victor before Victor was Winner McWinnerson. Canon leaves a pretty blank hole about Victor’s history between the ages of 17 and 22. We know, canonically, that he was the world champion in Sofia as a junior. We know he's the five-time consecutive World Champion and Grand Prix final winner, so he has five years of being Winner McWinnerson. Canon hints that he won an Olympic gold--he wears a Russian Olympic team jacket, so he's definitely gone, and one of the medals he waves in his self-introduction in Episode 10 appears to be a gold medal from the 2006 Olympics (http://itshawkeybaby.tumblr.com/post/154176904080/look-at-the-medal-that-is-donut-shaped-in-the). So...what happened in those five intervening years? Probably a lot of things.

4.A. Puberty. We see a very different body type between 16 year-old Victor and current Victor, and he almost certainly had to relearn his center of balance and how to do jumps et cetera et cetera, which meant that he probably had a period of adjustment where he wasn't doing that well.

4.B. Injury: Victor possibly suggests that he's been injured in the past.

Conclusion: before Victor was the Living Legend, Victor almost certainly has had periods of financial distress. Victor also knows that his success is ephemeral and that he has basically no damned job skills but skating. If Victor is spending all his money he is a freaking idiot. (Victor is not a freaking idiot. Getting to that.)

5. Here is a not-quite exhaustive list of Victor's potential income sources, and how they factor into his income.

5A. Prize money: We should almost certainly assume that the prize money in YOI-verse is higher than it is in the current universe. The current universe prize money is dismally low. Take this listing here: http://soyouwanttowatchfs.tumblr.com/post/153867523490/hey-i-have-always-wondered-how-much-money-figure I know, I know, $25,000 for winning the Grand Prix final sounds like a lot of money, but as a figure skater, you really only have about 7 total events where you can win real prize money per year: Two Grand Prix qualifying events, the Final, your national competition, either 4C or Euros, Worlds, and WTT (if it's available).

Add in that the cost of attending each event is significant: You need to get yourself there, have a hotel, have a place to train, eat well (which is not easy to do when you're traveling) and so forth, and provide the same for your coach. Some of these costs will be born by the RSF on Victor’s behalf, but some won't--especially if you want to get there a day early, or want to fly business/first instead of coach.

Put it this way: If Victor flies first class to Japan for Worlds, he will lose money on the event if he doesn't hit the podium. Yuuri's fourth place finish at the Rostelecom cup got him $3000.00, which probably means that he only lost about $1,000 on the event, and that's with Victor not charging him coaching fees.

Associated costs for an event will bump up some in YOI verse because the sport is more popular, of course, but there will be corresponding increases in costs--because the sport is more popular, hotels will be more expensive to compensate for larger crowds, trainers, nutritionists, and the best sports massage therapists in the area will be in greater demand because there's more at stake, and so forth.

My point with all of this is not to say that Victor is not making a crapload of money; he is. It's just to say that non-Victor people who are, maybe, just top 10, are probably not earning all that much money, and there’s probably at least an order of magnitude of earning between Victor and Chris (and don’t think that Chris is above feeling jealousy here.)

5.B. Non-skating speeches, appearances, et cetera: Some of these he will do for free (e.g., Good Morning America, because it's worth the publicity), and others he will charge for. My guess is that Victor can probably command about 30-40,000 on an appearance, assuming that he's an excellent public speaker. (This puts him about on the level of Neil Gaiman.) However, it seems unlikely to me that he'd want to schedule lots of these events given his schedule. Victor probably has a bog-standard cheesy inspirational speech that he gives to Google about Never Giving Up! and Getting Over His Injury! and Working Super Hard! You can Do It To!

5.C. Advertisements: Victor almost certainly advertises for skating gear, clothing, and other manufacturers. I'll talk about his image later, but think about the number of athletes that advertise for brands outside their sport. It's actually quite small, and only for household names. Victor has a leg up on his competition because he's hot and considered desirable, but this particular train almost certainly wasn't available to him until he was established as Winner McWinnerson.

5.D. Merchandise: Victor likely collects a royalty on licensing his name and image for T-shirts, posters, and other merchandise.

5.E. Participation in Ice shows: Victor participates in ice shows and is paid for his participation. I suspect that the ice shows provide transportation/hotel + stipend. For someone like Victor, that stipend is probably pretty decent--$30,000-$40,000 or so--and the travel is first class. Victor probably does not do ice shows that would net him less than that. For your average skater, that check is probably more like $3,000-$6,000 and sardine class travel. Where I'm sourcing this: This discussion on the Golden Skate forum (free login required to view). http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?50195-How-Much-Do-Skaters-Get-Paid-For-Shows&styleid=5 Michelle Kwan was listed as getting $15,000 a show, back when skating was much more popular than it is now, so I'm bumping this up for Victor.

5.F. Since I keep mentioning that skating is more popular in the YOIverse than present reality, I need to point out that a major difference between our reality and the YOIverse is Victor Nikiforov. He is the face of skating. If the sport is prominent in YOIverse it is because the spokesperson for that sport is Victor. He's the non-doping, clean-cut, sexy-as-hell everyone-wants-him guy that everyone calls for a comment on any skating related matter. He has been utterly dominant for years, and he’s never a jerk. You cannot say that skating is more prominent in the YOIverse without recognizing that Victor Nikiforov is almost certainly substantially responsible for that prominence. This, too, must be attributed to Victor.

6. Let's talk about the distribution of gains in an area like skating. Like all income distributions in highly competitive fields, it's a power-law distribution with the top earners earning TONS of money and almost everyone else making close to nothing. At this link there's a fantastic graph of what the distribution looked like for prize money in the 2014-2015 season. If you can't tell from that graph, basically, TL;DR, a handful of people are winning all the prize money in skating.

The same is probably true--but magnified--for the non-prize-money rewards above. If you aren't winning substantial prize money, nobody wants to hear you give inspirational speeches, nobody will be convinced to bank with Bank of the Egret because of your ad, et cetera et cetera. You may get to go to ice shows, but you're essentially interchangeable and your check will be substantially smaller. This is relevant to our current discussions for two reasons:

6.A. It gives us some idea what Victor's top earning potential is (high).

6.B. It tells us that before Victor reached his current level of income, he was almost certainly making somewhere in the "barely comfortable" range. I'll come back to this later, too.

7. This concept probably has a real economic name but if it does, I have forgotten it and Google isn't loving me. (It might be net present value, but I'm not sure this is adequate.) For now, I'm going to call it "effective salary"--that is, the amount of money that you effectively have to spend, given the costs (or perks) of your job.

7.A. If your job gives you meals for free, that raises your effective salary--money that you would otherwise have spent on food is now free to do other things for you. If your job provides you housing for free, that raises your effective salary. If your job requires that you wear, say, a suit and tie all the time, that lowers your effective salary.

7.B. There are also jobs that have a lower effective salary if you properly account for the present-value of costs imposed in later years by current conduct. As an example, let's take football. People sometimes bitch about how even unknown 18 year old players in the NFL get paid ungodly amounts of money. The truth is, though, many of those unknown players, they are almost certainly operating at a loss if you account for the present value of future costs. Since almost 30% of NFL players will develop Alzheimers or dementia as a result of their playing, taking into account future lost income and years of skyrocketing health care costs, a million dollars a year for two years is probably operating at a loss for those players.

7.C. Skating is almost certainly a sport that operates--for most players--at an effective loss, even if that year's balance sheet appears to be in the black. This is because it imposes an incredibly high toll on the body. Victor is almost certainly going to be dealing with early arthritis and chronic hip/joint pain. We don't really know what the long-term toll of this will be because Victor is the first generation of skaters that skated under the new system that so heavily emphasized quads and jumps.

I'm putting this out there simply to say that any skater who isn't saving a crapload of money, is going to end up paying the costs of his skating career at a point when they no longer have the proceeds to support them. We'll talk about Victor's saving money later.

8. Whew. Now we've gone through how Victor gets money. Let's recharacterize them: Victor gets money by (a) being good at skating, and (b) monetizing his personal image, which he has developed into a platform by being good at skating. The point of much of the above is that (a) is actually not an incredibly lucrative source of income. There isn't that much money out there even in the enhanced YOI-verse to do much more than give skaters a semi-comfortable living, and to (maybe) save enough to deal with future costs of skating. (b) is where Victor makes all his money, so let's talk about Victor's image.

8.A. Victor's image is canonically calculated to a degree that no other skater manages. He thinks about what stories he is telling the audience, and micromanages the story he is telling to all degrees: commissioning his own music, choreographing it himself, and so forth.

8.B. Victor's image is canonically pervasive. Minako very firmly believes that Victor is a playboy, and that he is also (simultaneously) incredibly nice to his fans. Ditto for Nishigori. This is a tightrope to walk. Think about what this means--there is no footage out there of Victor snapping at some fan who just got on his last nerve, no pervasive rumors of him being a shithead to staff. Victor Nikiforov is just an incredibly hot, handsome, nice guy who has that tantalizing whiff of availability, and if only you were wearing this cologne... Whew.

8.C. Victor is canonically incredibly savvy about his image. At some point, he must have realized that his image had gotten away with him. "Holy shit," thinks young virginal Victor at some point, "they think I'm...uh...what?" But what does Victor do? He accepts what the audience thinks of him, and he runs with it--with his only goal being to surprise and delight them so that he doesn't lose their favor. Victor makes a point of telling Yuuri and Yurio that they don't get to choose their image, and so they need to learn to express things that aren't natural to them.

8.D. This is again an aside, but let's think about the Victor that nobody really knew? Look at even his friendship with Chris--even that is filtered through the Fake Victor image. Nobody wanted Victor for Victor until that moment on the beach with Yuuri. A moment of silence for the Victor whose personal self was pushed aside for the relentless rapacity of his public image, please. *bows head, wipes away silent tear*

Again, I see people treating Victor’s image as something that Victor simply fell headfirst into by virtue of his godlike skating, but the truth is that this is something that Victor has managed and pursued. Victor is good at monetizing himself.

9. Let's talk about those ice shows again. VICTOR RUNS HIS OWN ICE SHOWS. He does it for Onsen on Ice (by implication; it's "Victor Nikiforov presents" and Victor did not get to be where he is by ignoring the value of his own damned name) and he does it for Victor and Friends, and those are just the two that we see.

This deserves it's own bullet point since this is HIGHLY RELEVANT to Victor's genius. Running your own ice shows when your name is a draw is substantially more lucrative--see the estimate in the above link from the Golden Skate that Yuna Kim's ice show took in a profit of about a million dollars. Stop. Take a deep breath. Compare that to what Victor could command for performing in someone else's ice shows. Victor can get maybe $40,000 to perform in an ice show, and maybe $200,000 to run an ice show.

(Onsen on Ice wouldn't have generated that much profit; there wasn't the time to ramp up ticket sales, and the venue wasn’t optimal either.) This is not something that most skaters are generally able to do. Victor is an entrepreneur, dammit, and I want him to get all appropriate credit.

10. While we're talking about giving credit to Victor, let me make one thing clear. I swear in this point because this is eye-rollingly infantilizing ways that Victor gets treated.

Victor (with the help of appropriate professionals that he handpicks himself) manages his own damned finances.

Yakov does not manage Victor's finances. I've seen this one come up a bunch of times. The implication is that Victor is irresponsible and so Yakov handles things. This is ridiculous for a number of reasons.

10.A. Victor Nikiforov is a grown-ass adult of 27 years who canonically has a "zero" under his cooperation skills and never does anything that Yakov tells him to do. It is flatly unbelievable that it is in his character to just hand his finances off to Yakov and allow him to manage them.

10.B. Yakov does not have the damned time to be an accountant/babysitter. Inevitably, of course, he does have to do some things that resemble babysitting, and I'm sure he has some rules for conduct for those who skate at his rink that relate to RSF morality rules/skating health. That being said, he is a damned good skating coach. He coached Victor. He coached Georgi who is not terrible. He coaches Yurio. He coaches Mila.

Yakov is a coach for champions, and that is an incredibly specialized skillset. He does not have the time to mess around with his skater's finances, and he absolutely did not develop the necessary skillset. Maybe he hands them a list of "dos and don't"--"don't forget to save money for taxes" for instance, or "hire an accountant as soon as you're making enough"--but general financial management, or acquisition of merchandising opportunities, is not his bailiwick.

10.C. While we're at it, the coach-student relationship between a world champion and a world champion coach is nothing like a student-teacher relationship. The world champion has to bring their own thoughts to the table. The world champion can fire their coach at any minute if the relationship isn't working. There is very little disparity of power between them.

Victor and Yakov's relationship is one of respect, not one in which Yakov holds power over Victor. On a more mundane approachable level, I would say that the relationship is much more like a client-realtor relationship. A good realtor will give you excellent advice on maximizing your property's curb appeal. You can choose not to take any of it. You can walk away and use someone else as allowed under your contract. An unethical realtor can mess up a client in many ways, but a savvy client is unlikely to get played.

10.D. If Yakov actually had any control over Victor's finances in canon, don’t you think he would force Victor to stay in Russia instead of going thousands of miles for a skating video-booty call? Yes. Yes he would.

10.E. I understand that sometimes fic writers need someone to conveniently impose limits on Victor, because having a character who has a shitload of money means that there are many monetary problems you can't have in a fic. That's cool, it's fine, but let's be real, this is just a convenience of the fic, and God knows that if any of my above points are inconvenient in a fic I will magically unheadcanon them myself. That being said, it's completely and utterly irrational to imagine that Yakov plays such an actual role in Victor’s finances.

10.F. Look back at where Victor makes the majority of his money. YAKOV CANNOT DO THESE THINGS. Yakov is a skating coach. He is unlikely to have a firm understanding of what rights of personality Victor has in the global intellectual property market and what he needs to have put in a contract in Korea versus in California. He is unlikely to know what the going rate is for advertisements for top-level athletes. He is unlikely to know when he can make a client walk away from an exclusivity clause and when it's a given. He probably might give him an idea if the offered compensation for an ice show is low, but that's about it.

Yakov is a damned good skating coach but these other things require a team of people. Victor almost certainly has a booking agent, a merchandising agent, a modeling agent, an events team that helps manage the ice shows he does put on, in addition to accountants and investment bankers.

11. Victor probably receives tons of things for free. People seem to think that just because Victor has $7,000 sunglasses, or has driven a million-something dollar pink convertible, that he shelled out his own money for that. Victor is a celebrity who gets instant airtime wherever he shows up. Brands send him things. The classic car rental place in Tel Aviv where he picked up that convertible paid for him to come and drive it and Instagram himself in front of their front office. Victor does not need money to buy things.

12. In addition, many of the things that Victor spends money on that gets characterized as "extra" is spending on legitimate business expenses that contribute to his bottom line.

12.A. Yes, his costumes cost on the order of $5000. This is a business expense that is absolutely necessary to maintain his image. He's not going to be the guy that everyone wants to be--an image that nets him tons of money from 1-3 above--if he's wearing an old T-shirt over jeans as his giant romantic costume. He has an image, and he's not going to practice false economy by hurting his image.

12.B. Yes, he flies first class. Flying first class allows him to arrive in much better shape, better-rested, with less chance of cramps and blood clots. The dude is 5'10", and his body is his greatest asset. He didn't get to be one of the oldest reigning champions of his sport without learning to treat it well.

12.C. Let's talk about the times when Victor critiques what Yuuri is wearing, because I think these are mischaracterized as Victor being extra, when it’s actually Victor being savvy. There's that tie, and his suit, both of which Victor does not like. This is not just Victor being a fashionista.

Victor understands that you need to dress for the job you want, and if Yuuri is constantly dressing like a college student with a $10 tie and an ill-fitting suit, nobody's ever going to take him seriously as a business person and potential business partner. This is why he buys Yuuri a damned suit.

Notice that at no other time in the show does he ever criticize Yuuri's clothing. He only does so when it's related to business.

12.D. Ditto for having all his costumes shipped from Russia. I'm not sure how much that cost him, but it sure was cheaper than Yuuri/Yurio paying another $4000-$5000 a piece for their own costumes, and see above about dressing for the job you want.

Wearing a great costume at Onsen on Ice will make people take the event much more seriously, and since Victor is RUNNING it, this is not a selfless move. Having them wear Victor's costumes helps keep Victor in the public eye, and keeps interest in his prior career, which helps keep his income stream level.

13. Victor exhibits signs of frugality in his every day life.

13.A. As extra as we say Victor is, let's take a look at his room in Hasetsu.

What does he have in here? A sofa. A king bed, which isn't particularly expensive in the grand scheme of things, and besides, we all know Makkachin is a bed hog. Books. Lamps. A set of Russian dolls. A framed picture of himself which he probably stole from Yuuri. Aside from the statue (?! what the hell Victor), this is not a lavishly furnished room.

13.B. Victor's the one who worries about the strength of the Euro when they're shopping in Barcelona.

13.C. Victor's apartment in St. Petersburg, as nice as it is, is an apartment, and not, like, Lillia's mansion. He actually lives in a very reasonable space for a person of his income.

I mean, it’s nice! It’s very nice! But he doesn’t even have a large screen TV.

13.D. Victor has no problem staying in an unused banquet room in Hasetsu for a year even though if he were actually as spoiled as everyone imagined, he would get his own damned apartment. He never acts like he's slumming.

13.E. I know everyone talks about how freaking extra that pink convertible is, but why does nobody talk about the vehicle that Victor canonically purchased to transport himself while he was in Hasetsu?

It’s not even a three-speeder!

Look at you, Victor, spending as much as 10,000 yen.

14. Because someone will bring it up, here is a brief note about the one totally extra thing that Victor does is not a great money maximization choice: Victor's move to Hasetsu.

14.A. I’m gonna come right out and say that this was a bad economic decision, in the sense that it will cost him a lot of money, and the decision is executed in a way that maximizes that decision for many reasons, including:

14.A.i. He almost certainly loses any funding he gets from Russia.

14.A.ii. The speed of the decision almost certainly pissed off some long-time people he has worked with, who would have preferred that he try to be the World Champion for the sixth time.

14.A.iii. He ships all his stuff internationally via FedEx for god's sake has the man not heard of ground transportation? (For the record, he almost certainly shipped his luggage as a pallet through them--not as expensive as the package rate, but still, Victor, wow.)

14.B. It was nonetheless the right decision for him to make. Yes, even the FedEx thing.

14.B.i. Victor knows he needs a change and he needs it desperately.

14.B.ii. He knows that the decision is on its face so irrational to the outside world--he's moving to Japan for a guy he danced with for one night, to do something he's never done before--that he cannot give himself a way to back out or he might get cold feet.

14.B.iii. He needs to make the decision so complete and irrevocable that people--Yakov, the three agents mentioned above--will have a hard time talking him out of it.

That's why he ships all his stuff to arrive immediately. His decision is made fast so that nobody has the chance to talk him out of it. (Yurio tries.)

This is not a money maximizing choice, but it is the right choice nonetheless. Being a financial genius does not mean always putting money first. In fact, that is a particular form of financial distress. Being a financial genius means making your money work for you rather than the other way around, and this is an example of Victor doing exactly that.

15. I'm now going to circle around to some of the breadcrumbs that I've laid here. I've said before that I think it's pretty clear that Victor has not always had access to the kinds of money that he has now. Before he got RSF support, money was probably tight. Between the ages of 17 and the current onset of Winning All the Things Forever at 22, he probably didn't have access to tons of money. Victor survived.

Furthermore, I think that these periods of temporary imperfection probably made him a much, much better financial manager. You are better at budgeting for crises and future loss of income after you’ve expereinced it once. 15.A. He is less likely to spend all his money. I know that we are talking about income in the millions, and it's hard to think about spending income in the millions, but tons of celebrities manage to do just that every year.

15.B. Loss of prior fame means that Victor is more aware that what he has is temporary. His image is driven by his winningness, and he's getting close to the end of his natural career.

15.C. Knowing that this period is short means that he has dumped a lot of effort into maximizing the results--so much that he really hasn't had time to do anything else.

16. Now something completely different: Victor notices the signs of income distress in others and acts accordingly to help alleviate it. (I cannot tell you how rare this property is in people who are rich now, and have always been rich. It is so rare.)

16A. Let's talk briefly about what Victor was expecting to find in Hasetsu and what he got. Victor probably got a translation of what Yuuri said to him in Japanese--when Yuuri invited him to stay at his parent's resort--and what he was thinking to himself was, oh, Yuuri's parents own a resort.

For the reasons mentioned above, most people who are in skating are usually pretty wealthy. Yuuri was unusually blessed with non-financial resources--a skating rink that let him skate there when they were closed, a childhood ballet teacher who is a close friend of his mother's--that allowed him to develop.

I suspect what Victor imagined was something a little bit more like "his parents have desks in the office at a major seaside resort that brings in millions" and a little bit less like "Yuuri's mom personally does all the cooking."

It takes Victor a while to adjust to the reality of Yuuri's family--when he first arrives, he asks them to take his luggage up to his room because he has no freaking idea that the onsen does not have a staff. When Yuuri himself starts hauling his luggage along with another uniformed staff member, he starts to wonder. Then Yuuri introduces the other uniformed staff member, and Victor discovers it’s his sister, and oh my god, you mean to say that very nice woman who personally brought him his dinner is Yuuri’s mother, and the guy who explained how an onsen works was his dad? The only staff at the onsen is Yuuri’s family?

Yuuri is a rarety in figure skating--he’s someone who doesn’t come from money at all, whose family in fact in their entirety makes most of their living from actively working in the service industry.

But Victor very quickly figures out a score that quite frankly, I don’t think most people would get. Yuuri’s family is literally running the onsen, Yuuri’s sister never went to college, Yuuri is an outlier in the skating world, and holy shit, is this why Yuuri came back home from Detroit?

So imagine Victor gamely pitching in when he realizes there is no legion of staff to bring his luggage up to his room. While he's helping move everything, he’s recalculating his assumptions in his head. He comes to the totally reasonable conclusion that the reason Yuuri has been acting so bizarrely about his arrival, after coming on to him so strongly at the banquet and skating his program, is because he can't figure out how to afford to pay Victor.

(And honestly, this says so much about Victor--that someone at his level of income has the empathy to understand that someone else might be stressed about money.)

Victor immediately acts to try and alleviate what he thinks may be a point of distress--that is, he tries to take the issue of coaching fees out of the question between them in hopes that this will help fix everything.

(It doesn't at all because Yuuri doesn't remember the banquet, but good try, Victor.)

I almost feel badly that this point is stuck like 80% of the way through this post at 16.A. because it’s such an incredible moment that really captures how great Victor is, and I want to scream so loudly about how we don’t deserve Victor, because we don’t, we really don’t.

16.B. Let's talk about Hasetsu in general. Everyone (with the possible exception of Yuuri, who has been gone for five years and also is so wrapped up in his own head that he either avoids thinking about this or freaks out too much when he contemplates it and avoids it altogether) is aware that Hasetsu is rapidly losing people and falling apart.

All the other onsens have gone bankrupt. Minako has essentially no ballet students. Yuuri's parents have no back-up staff at the onsen, something that means that they have very, very little margin--not enough margin for either of his parents to ever travel to Yuuri's events, or to Yuuri's college graduation. The Nishigori triplets are constantly scheming about ways to bring attention to Ice Castle and their town.

When Yuuri first arrives in town, Minako basically expects him to help turn things around by spotlighting the town, and Yuuri's response is "I'm tired right now." Minako rightly thinks WTF, but lets him be Yuuri, because he has been Yuuri for a good long while and is unlikely to abruptly change into anyone else. The town is dying; Minako is barely staying afloat; the onsen is understaffed and there’s no money to pay anyone, and Yuuri needs to sit around and think about what to do next. Thanks, Yuuri.

Then Victor comes.

16.C. Victor's arrival immediately brings customers to the onsen--more customers than anyone has seen in recent years.

16.D. Victor is shown to frequently visit local businesses--Minako's bar, Nahagama Ramen.

16.E. Victor of his own free will tries to advertise Hasetsu as a tourist location during Onsen on Ice. He runs Onsen on Ice, which probably brings more money to Ice Castle in a single day than they pulled in last year.

16.F. Victor Nikiforov is the best damned thing to ever happen to Hasetsu. He is exactly what Minako hoped Yuuri would be, except he's not an anxious bean who can't imagine why anyone would like him, and so he can actually use the image and platform he has built up to make a difference.

17. Victor is not so spoiled that he is incapable of doing his own damned chores.

17.A. Victor had Makkachin as a puppy. I guarantee you that if he had not been able to pick up after himself his skates would have been chewed to bits. There is no amount of staff that will prevent puppy destruction.

17.B. Victor's room in Hasetsu is not a complete mess. Given how short-staffed the onsen is, he has to be picking up for himself to some degree. (No, there is no way that Yuuri is doing it for him, please do not suggest that, I love Yuuri but he is the WORST.) Compare to Yurio's space.

18. Let's calculate Victor's potential income!

No matter how you add up Victor's income from the above streams, he's probably bringing in maybe around 5 million a year after you deduct his agents' cut and so forth. The number of ice shows he can put on is relatively limited, since he's still training, and so forth.

To put Victor's earnings in perspective, in 2016, Beyoncé earned $54 million. No matter how you headcanon Victor's celebrity status in YOI-verse, (a) Victor does not have as monetizable an income stream as Beyoncé, as she sells the direct product of her labor, which is infinitely duplicable and (b) Victor is not as popular as Beyoncé. I love him but come on.

19. Let's figure out his net worth! I recognize that 5 million bucks a year sounds like a lot of money but many, many minor celebrities/lottery winners/sudden recipients of windfalls have absolutely no problem blowing through that and ending up with nothing. These earnings will be offset by taxation and all the costs of skating not born by the RSF: upgrades to first class, for instance, spa treatments, make up artists, legal fees because the man is signing contracts and he's not stupid enough not to hire a lawyer to look them over, another lawyer because he's probably incorporated a business or whatever the Russian equivalent is. Plus he needs to pay someone to take care of Makkachin, cover the costs of directly commissioning music for his own programs, etc.

While skating, he probably has around $400-$500 K in necessary business expenses--commissioning a piece that’s performed by singers and a full orchestra isn’t cheap--not counting expenses accrued by traveling for speeches/endorsement or the costs of running his ice shows. This leaves him with something (after taxes--I'm not super-familiar with Russian tax rates, but I'm guessing he will have to pay their personal income tax rate and their social security rate) like 2-3 million dollars net--that is, net of taxes and business expenses.

From that, deduct basic living expenses. From that, deduct anything he spends extra money on--food, clothing, cleaning expenses. And he's probably only been at the 2-3 million dollars amount for the last two years or so. It's taken time for the machinery to ramp up; for most skaters, it never ramps up.

At best, Victor has been Winner McWinnerson for five years. This gives us an upper and a (somewhat) lower bound on Victor's nest egg:

A. Upper bound: Victor's present net worth at present is something like $15,000,000.

B. Lower bound: Victor spent all the money he made and is in fact in debt. This is not the case, but honestly, if he were as stupid about money as people thought he was, he would be.

20. A moment here. Over the course of my life, I have (a) lived in a tent, and (b) worked with people who were so stinking full of money that they had no idea how anyone could function on what is even an average income, which has given me an interesting view of how rich people approach money.

For all that people say that Victor is extra, Victor has never been canonically shown to have any of the vices that typically accompany vast amounts of money being dumped in your lap. He flew first class (on Aeroflot, which is actually basically business, not first), instead of getting himself a private jet. He lives in a reasonably swanky apartment by himself; he didn't get a mansion with a personal chef and a full complement of staff. When he moved to Hasetsu, he didn't get a separate place (which he totally could have done); he stayed in a banquet room, which is (by Russian standards) small.

Victor does not live the life of the rich and famous. Victor lives a life that you could have on a lower six-figure salary.

As Yuuri's coach, when Yuuri is paying for his plane tickets, he has no problem flying coach if that's what needs to be done. Victor is vastly underspending his apparent earnings, adjusts to Yuuri's very different financial reality without standing out or making a fuss, and he never once complains about it. Can we please give this man a hand for how well he adjusts to someone else's reality?

21. Likewise, people who cannot learn to manage money quickly discover that money is like closet space: If you don't make an effort to impose order, you will run out, no matter how large the paycheck, or how gargantuan the closet.

You can figure this out by reading the deeply distressed letters written by people sobbing about how it's not fair that they're considered part of the evil 1% because they're not that rich and until you've tried living on $800,000 in New York you don't know what real poverty is. In one of my many cat-like lives, I worked with some incredibly rich, privileged people who would tell me that they were barely staying afloat as a couple making $400,000 a year in a not-super-expensive part of the country, and they could not possibly afford to drop even as much as $10,000 from their salaries without being unable to pay off their credit card debt. I've had colleagues who went into a flying panic if their monthly income went below $17,000 (this is almost a direct quote). These are people who are rich in revenue but who have never adopted spending habits that allowed them to become remotely wealthy.

Victor Nikiforov is not that person. Victor Nikiforov was able to basically quit a job that was bringing in possibly 5 million dollars a year (technically, he still has income streams that will continue through his time in Hasetsu, so it's not that cut and dry, but yeah) to go coach a man who might never be able to pay him.

Victor has never, ever freaked out about money, and if he were budgeting on a shoestring, he would have.

People simply do not do that kind of thing if they have made themselves dependent on their massive income.

22. There's a number that gets called the "safe withdrawal rate"--that is, it's the percentage of invested funds you can withdraw without risking the bulk of your principal. This number has typically been based on historical market performance and Monte Carlo simulations. That number is about 4%--if you can live on 4% of your savings, which are dynamically invested, your net worth will (on average, over time) not decrease. (Here's a good discussion of historically what this means.

A financially frugal, rational Victor, with his potential $15 million stashed in appropriately diversified asset classes as approved by his financial advisor, can safely spend $600,000 a year without really risking his principal. Victor does not appear to spend anywhere near $200,000 over the course of the show--which would be financially frugal for someone with even just $5,000,000 in the bank, discounting his earnings for that year.

Even if you assume that he paid for his clothing and that pink Cadillac all on his own, Victor is living--very comfortably--on a sum of money that he can retire on, without actually touching the principal.

TL;DR you can call Victor extra but he has not made any of the mistakes that befall most people who receive a financial windfall; he has done an incredible job of earning money that demonstrates real entrepreneurial spirit and an understanding of what he’s contributing, and he exhibits a compassion and a sensitivity with regard to the money issues that others have that suggests that he's very, very aware of what the value of money is.

VICTOR NIKIFOROV IS A FINANCIAL GENIUS.

#yoi meta #victor nikiforov #heart-mouthed financial genius #i just love him so much #please love him too

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